Methodology: Study Validation

• Both models closely tracked actual data.

• For period 1998-2001, average forecasting error was less than one percent for both models.

Model A

Model B

Residuals for Rateres

1998:1 through 2001:4

$/kwh

1998

1999

2000

2001

-0.0100

-0.0075

-0.0050

-0.0025

0.0000

0.0025

0.0050

0.0075

0.0100

Previous slide

Next slide

Back to first slide

View graphic version